Pew Finds 34 of 37 Countries Expect AI to Mean Fewer Jobs; Rich Nations Worry Most

TL;DR

The Pew Research Center published its 2026 global AI survey on September 17. Across 37 countries, the median adult says AI will lead to fewer jobs in their country over the next 20 years: 46%, against 9% who say more jobs. Pew counts 34 of the 37 countries as leaning toward fewer jobs rather than more. The pessimism rises with national income. Australia and South Korea sit at 76%, the U.S. at 71% (up from 64% in 2024), while a median of 55% in high-income countries expect job losses versus 36% in middle-income ones. The customers with the most money to spend on AI software are the ones most convinced it will cost them work.

What Pew asked, and who answered

This is Pew's Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey. The international portion covered 42,151 adults in 36 countries, interviewed between February 8 and May 13, 2026, by phone, face to face and online, with fieldwork run by Gallup, Langer Research Associates and the Social Research Centre. U.S. numbers come from Pew's American Trends Panel: 5,119 adults surveyed February 17-23 and 3,488 surveyed June 22-28. That is how 36 countries become a 37-country report.

The jobs question is specific: "Thinking about (survey country) over the next 20 years, do you think that artificial intelligence will lead to ...?" The answer options are more jobs, fewer jobs, will not make much difference, and not sure. It asks about the country, not the respondent's own job. It measures expectation, not experience.

A note on the headline number. A "37-country median" is the middle country when you line all 37 up, not the average of all 42,151 respondents. Think of it as the middle house on the street rather than the street's average income. It stops India's population from swamping Sweden's, which is the point, but it also means the median can hide wide swings on either side.

The split: 46% fewer, 9% more

Across the 37 countries, the median breakdown is 46% fewer jobs, 13% not much difference, 9% more jobs and 25% not sure. Pew says that in 34 of the 37, people tend to believe AI will lead to fewer jobs rather than more.

The close calls cluster in lower-income countries. Nigeria is the only country where more people said "more jobs" than "fewer jobs," and only by a hair: 27% to 26%, with 30% unsure. Ghana (29% more vs. 36% fewer) and Bangladesh (27% vs. 30%) are not far behind. Nigeria is the planet's lone AI jobs optimist by a single percentage point, a margin at which optimism and rounding are hard to tell apart.

Elsewhere the rival to pessimism is not optimism but uncertainty. In Thailand (49% unsure vs. 32% fewer) and the Philippines (54% unsure vs. 26% fewer), the most common answer is simply "not sure."

The richer the country, the gloomier the forecast

This is the finding that should matter most if you sell software. Pew plotted the "fewer jobs" share against 2025 GDP per capita and got a correlation of 0.60. Worry is highest in Australia, South Korea and the U.S. and less common in the lowest-income countries surveyed, such as Kenya, Nigeria and the Philippines. Pew flags Singapore, at 46%, as the wealthy outlier.

Pew grouped the countries using World Bank lending groups into 18 high-income and 18 middle-income countries. The gap shows up on every question:

• Fewer jobs: 55% median in high-income countries, 36% in middle-income ones.
• Not sure about jobs: 22% vs. 34%. Middle-income countries are not optimistic so much as undecided.
• AI will widen the rich-poor gap: 35% vs. 22%.
• More concerned than excited about AI in daily life: 40% vs. 31%.
• Heard or read a lot about AI: 50% vs. 27%.

Awareness does not look like a cure. In around half of the countries surveyed, people who have heard or read a lot about AI are more likely than less-aware people to say it will cost jobs. The less-aware are mostly the ones answering "not sure." So if your plan is to win people over by explaining the technology better, the data suggests explaining it tends to move people from "not sure" to "fewer jobs."

Young Americans flipped

The U.S. is the only country where Pew has asked the jobs question before. In August 2024, 64% of Americans said AI would mean fewer jobs. In June 2026, it was 71%. Only 5% now say more jobs.

The bigger move is among young adults. On Pew's separate question about how AI in daily life makes people feel, the share of Americans ages 18 to 34 who are more concerned than excited went from 40% in 2024 to 55% in 2026, including an 8-point rise since 2025. Pew notes that people under 35 are now as likely as those 50 and older to say they are mainly concerned, which is the reverse of five years ago, when older Americans were somewhat more worried.

The age pattern on jobs runs the same way in several countries. The share of 18-to-34-year-olds expecting fewer jobs beats the share of those 50 and older by 24 points in Singapore (57% vs. 33%), 22 points in Sweden (63% vs. 41%), 13 points in Canada (69% vs. 56%) and 7 points in the U.S. (74% vs. 67%). The people entering the workforce are the ones most sure there will be less of it.

Globally, though, young adults are more mixed than gloomy. Across 37 countries, a median 48% of 18-to-34-year-olds say they are equally concerned and excited, and 18% say they are more excited than concerned, double the 9% among those 50 and older.

Expecting job losses is not the same as rejecting AI

South Korea is the useful counterexample. It ties Australia for the highest share expecting fewer jobs (76%) and has the highest share saying AI will widen the rich-poor gap (54%). Yet only 18% of South Koreans say they are more concerned than excited about AI in daily life, and 61% say they are equally concerned and excited.

Compare Australia, with the same 76% on jobs and 53% more concerned than excited, the highest in the survey. Same forecast, very different mood. People can predict disruption and still use the thing doing the disrupting.

Excitement is scarce everywhere. The 37-country median for "more excited than concerned" is 13%. In the U.S. it is 9%, against 52% more concerned. The share more concerned than excited rose since 2025 in Sweden (+9 points), Poland (+8), the Netherlands (+7), Hungary (+6) and Australia (+4).

What builders should take from it

A lot of AI software is sold on some version of "the same work with fewer people." That pitch is not wrong, but the people who have to adopt the tool inside a customer's company, not just the buyer who signs the contract, now mostly arrive expecting AI to cost jobs. If your pitch deck says "do more with fewer people," 71% of Americans have already read the second half.

Three practical readings:

• Positioning in rich markets. In Australia, South Korea, the U.S., Greece, Canada, the U.K. and France, six in ten adults or more expect fewer jobs. Copy that leads with headcount savings lands on a public that already agrees with you and is unhappy about it.
• Your early adopters are souring. Young Americans have historically been the easy first users. Their concern jumped 15 points in two years. Treat that as a churn and brand risk, not a rounding error.
• Middle-income markets are unwritten. With a 34% median "not sure" on jobs and roughly half or more unsure in Thailand and the Philippines, those opinions are still forming. The first products people there actually use will do a lot of the forming.

Caveats

• This is sentiment, not a labor forecast. The question asks what people think will happen to jobs in their country over 20 years. It says nothing about what will happen.
• Modes differ. The U.S. data comes from an online-and-phone probability panel; other countries were surveyed by phone, face to face or online depending on the market. Pew designs for comparability, but cross-country gaps of a few points deserve caution.
• Medians flatten. The 46% headline is the middle country. Individual countries range from 26% (Nigeria, the Philippines) to 76% (Australia, South Korea).
• Nigeria's "optimism" is a one-point split with 30% unsure. Do not read it as a mandate.

Key Takeaways

• Pew surveyed 42,151 adults in 36 countries plus two U.S. panels; in 34 of 37 countries, people tend to expect AI to bring fewer jobs rather than more.
• The 37-country median is 46% fewer jobs, 9% more, 25% not sure. Nigeria is the only country where "more" edges out "fewer," 27% to 26%.
• Pessimism tracks wealth: 55% median in 18 high-income countries vs. 36% in 18 middle-income ones, with Australia and South Korea at 76% and the U.S. at 71%, up from 64% in 2024.
• Young Americans who are more concerned than excited about AI rose from 40% to 55% since 2024, now level with adults 50 and older.
• Knowing more about AI tends to move people from "not sure" to "fewer jobs," not toward optimism.
• Expecting job losses is not the same as rejecting AI: South Korea matches Australia's 76% on jobs but only 18% of Koreans are more concerned than excited.

Sources: Pew Research Center: Globally, More People Expect AI to Cause Job Loss Than Growth, Pew full report (PDF), Pew topline questionnaire (PDF), Pew methodology, Gizmodo, TechSpot, Search Engine Journal, World Bank country and lending groups